A recent New York Times article, titled: Ailing G.O.P. Risks Losing a Generation makes a claim that contradicts the much rephrased notion that “If you’re not a liberal at 20, you have no heart, but if you’re still a liberal at 40, then you have no brain.” Well, which one is correct? Are we, as Gen Yers, who voted almost 2:1 for Obama going to become conservative with age? Or have our political identities been formed and crystallized by the stark contrast between Clinton’s success in our formative years, Obama’s 21st century outlook and Bush’s disastrous presidency?
I believe that, for the most part, a person’s political identity remains unformed until they reach young adulthood and start following current events. Once they start understanding the issues at hand, their political identity gets anchored somewhere along the horseshoe shaped political spectrum. While it can be argued that a person’s political views change with age, I think they move in relation to their original anchor and shift slightly. In other words, I don’t feel that somehow Rush Limbaugh’s ‘incendiary remarks’ will have high resonance for me when I’m old. This study from the Public Opinion Quarterly circa 1969 supports my claim:
The cross-sectional photograph of human behavior usually given by survey research may in fact show that the older members of a population are more conservative than the younger. But a longitudinal look at this behavior reveals that differences in age are more strongly related to generational than to maturational differences.
So, the GOP’s concerns are very real, and no amount of Meghan McCain’s proposed social media splurge will help reverse the Gen Y allegiance to the Democratic Party. There are many factors that have formed the current generational trend, but one of the largest ones is the incompetence of the last eight years. This incompetence can be split into problems of Bush’s presidency and problems of the GOP as a whole. W.’s personal contribution was: the two wars, the unwinnable global war on terror, turning America into a military aggressor, torture of prisoners for the whole world to see, and Scooter Libby’s scandal. While his party is now associated with purporting a now obviously failed Marxian-style capitalist platform that led to this current banking crisis. A party, that claims to be fiscally responsible, but that can’t lower deficits. A party, that presided over the greatest increase in disparity between rich and poor. Talk about class warfare and redistribution of wealth!
Also besides the aversion to the current GOP, our generation is too young to remember Reagan personally, and his legacy seems much more tarnished then conservatives claim. I know he is considered the greatest thing since sliced bread by CPAC and Fox News, but there are lots of arguments diminishing his greatness. For example, his funding of the Afghanistan’s Mujahideen that led to the rise of Al-Qaida and the Taliban. The Iran-Contra affair, the drastic increase in the federal budget deficit. Conservatives might chalk up these claims as ramblings of just another liberal media follower, but when was the last time you heard that Reagan should be put up on Mount Rushmore or replace Hamilton on the $10 bill?
So, our generation isn’t too enamored with Reagan partly for the stated reasons, but also because Welfare Queens and The Red Threat are not issues that resonate with Gen Y. These are the issues for the Generation X voters that grew up with Reagan. Consequently they self-identified themselves as Republicans back in ‘86 when they were 18-29 and 20 years later were more likely to vote for McCain then younger citizens:
If this trend, that favored Republicans for the last 20 years, works similarly for Gen Y, then the GOP does indeed stand a chance to loose a whole generation. Well 66% of them at least.
WARNING! Any politician who says he/she is part of a religion of God and professes to believe in or support major heresies (abortion, homosexuality, etc.), knowingly or unknowingly practices Satanism. “AND WHOSOEVER SHALL KEEP THE WHOLE LAW BUT OFFEND IN ONE POINT IS BECOME GUILTY OF ALL.” James 4(10).
It’s funny, but in 2002, the story was that the outpouring of support for President Bush and Republicans on college campuses was overwhelming. I’m 33, and I didn’t know anyone who would dare say that Bush was doing a bad job in months after 9/11 (and I worked at a liberal law firm at the time). Media outlets (and Karl Rove) were suggesting that Bush was realigning American politics for a generation with his powerful stand against terrorism and his swift movement to forestall economic collapse after 9/11.
All this to say that the same generation who cheered Bush on campus in 2002 stormed the barricades for Obama in 2008. Presidents are popular – new presidents are very popular. New presidents during times of crisis are desperately popular. That popularity will only remain if the president who receives it tends to its care. As with all previous generations of Americans, Generation Y’ers are largely apolitical types who value competence, vote with their pocketbooks, want freedom, cheer for the little guy, and hate hubris. If Obama turns them off on these scores, they’ll turn on him as quickly as they did against Bush.
Marque,
Thank you for your comment. I agree with you that if everything goes to shit, then people will turn against these policies. However, Gore and Kerry and Clinton in ’96 did well the 18-29. Better then their Republican counter part (http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/exit-polls.html)
That’s right — young voters are more liberal. They become more conservative with age. That’s a time-honored political fact. In fact, I’d argue that Kerry only winning 46 percent of 18-29 year olds is rather remarkable. The millennial change would occur if those young voters stay liberal over time. We won’t know that until later, but I bet they’re a lot more like historical voters than we presume.
The only two “millennial” vote blocs I’m aware of across history were New Deal voters, who fell in love with FDR after he ran their country for 14 years, and Civil War voters, who held their grudges for 100 years. Could Obama be that kind of transformational, enduring change agent? Sure, but it’s rare enough that I’ll wait to see it before I believe it.