There has been a lot of discussion about the future of the GOP. How will they rebound? Which platform changes need to be made in order for them to regain the voter’s confidence? Does anything even need to be done, or can they just wait for Obama’s deficit spending to cause an out of control inflation and wait for the electorate to turn their backs on a Democratic corrupt nanny state.
I think the GOP has so far chosen the “wait and see” approach. For as bad as the economy seems, it’s not nearly as catastrophic as the 24- hour news coverage makes it out to be. Over 90% of mortgages are still being paid in a timely manner. Over 90% are employed in one form or another. So while GDP has fallen 6.1 percent in 6 months and consumer confidence is still near all time lows, people are still going about their daily business. They still drive cars, they still live in homes and they still have clothes. After years of consumer gluttony, people don’t seem to mind living off of the accumulated junk for a little while. And for those unfortunate souls that lost their jobs, well…they are making due with their unemployment benefits (I’ll get back to you on what happens afterwards, once mine run out). So things are bad, but not desperate.
Meanwhile, Obama has a whole set of issues that he has to juggle. Pulling out of Iraq is not a forgone conclusion. Afghanistan is a shithole, that has now morphed into AfPak and possibly nuclear. Then there are the domestic issues of healthcare reform, credit card reform, mortgage reform, financial reform, bank bailouts, car bailouts, green economy initiatives. Just reading that partial list can make one’s head spin.
The conventional wisdom is that nobody, regardless of how talented or well liked, will be able to accomplish such a massive agenda. Add into it a little bit of Republican road-blocking and a Fox News organized negative media blitz and you’ve got yourself a GOP campaign circa 2010 and 2012.
While this political strategy might have its merits on paper, it is not panning out the way Republicans have hoped. First off, and this is the most obvious reason, the GOP is inextricably linked to George W. Bush. His approval ratings were incredibly low, he is blamed for entering Iraq without justification, and he is blamed for the financial crisis. Those blunders will not be easily forgotten by the voting public. Sure there are plenty of people out there that will defend the GOP by trying to distance it from Bush, but there is no reason to believe that people will forget just how poorly they used to think of Bush and subsequently the Republican Party.
Also, not only is the party associated with failure, but it also has few new ideas. The party of “No” is a very simple campaign slogan that sticks. It easily reminds voters on how obstructive the GOP was in the early days of the Obama administration. That they didn’t offer any real new solutions and just clamored for more tax cuts for the rich and more deregulation in the financial sector. That platform might resonate with the voters in a time of prosperity, but the fact that working class wages have been stagnant while healthcare costs have skyrocketed makes people want for a little more government initiative.
Finally, the wait and see approach is hampered by their much talked about lack of leadership. When one thinks about leaders in the Democratic Party, they conjure up images of Obama and Hillary Clinton; strong, intellectually honest, and well reasoning politicians. The Republicans however are now associated with Rush, Hannity, Savage, Bush, Cheney, Rove, Cantor, Boehner, Gingrich, Steele, and McCain. The first three are controversial figures whom a majority of women hate and while witty and entertaining should not be the face of a national political party. Well you see the stark contrast. This might seem like a partisan analysis, especially if you’re drinking the Fox News cool-aid, but that’s what the poll numbers show. These ‘leaders’ can be picked off one by one in an election campaign because they are for the most part controversial figures with a checkered past.
As a result of this leadership vacuum and their lack of new ideas, and their association with the Bush administration, a reform minded faction is breaking away from the rest of the GOP. This faction is made up of some of the more prominent intellectuals of the Party: Frum, Douthut, Schmidt, Sullivan and now Meghan McCain. They see that this approach is going to fail in 2010 and 2012 and are desperately trying to change the direction of the party. It will be interesting to see how this battle plays out.
